Thursday, October 13, 2011

Assassination Attempt in NYC or Gulf of Tonkin Redux?

The Department of Justice and the White House announced the thwarting of a plot to assassinate the Saudi Foreign Minister today.  Understandably the Saudis are beside themselves, Hillary Clinton wrung her hands and, wonder of wonders, the Obama administration has an excuse to bomb the Iranian nuclear facilities just before a Presidential election, an option the administration publicly eliminated some time ago.

I am not much of a conspiracy theorist but I am going to hold fire on this for awhile and see if the White House does the same.  I am skeptical for the following reasons:
  • It is too convenient:
    • It allows Holder to have been "preoccupied" when the Gunwalker memos crossed his desk;
    • It reactivates the option of bombing the Iranian nuclear facilities;
    • It occurs just before the 2012 election cycle and allows O the opportunity to be a War President.  (We seldom replace a President during a major conflict)
    • It creates a convenient crisis for an administration that has repeatedly demonstrated that it will "never let a crisis go to waste".
  • If the Administration is seriously suspected of running an operation to flood Mexico with guns to implement legislative attacks on the 2nd Amendment why would we believe it incapable of this kind of charade as well.
  • The plot itself was rudimentary and amateurish:
    • The Iranian government is very aware of the vulnerability of cell phone and internet communications to NSA and the Patriot Act:
    • There is no cut-out.  The Iranian government routinely uses Hezbollah to take responsibility for terrorist acts and shield direct connection to senior leadership.
    • The Al Quds Force has been in Latin America for over 20 years and has extensive contacts with Mexican drug dealers through the FARC and the Venezuelan government.  They did not need an operative to blindly contact a DEA informant in the Texas border regions where they know that surveillance is pervasive.  They could come from the south.
    • The operative immediately is cooperating?  He lives in the US for decades, reads the newspapers and hasn't lawyered up?
This is very preliminary but at this point I would say the whole thing seems unlikely.

Iranian Plot or Gulf of Tonkin redux?

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