Cut Spending or Raise Taxes: Veronique de Rugy weighs in with some FACTS: What a concept!

 This is a breath of fresh air.  Listening to the Debt Ceiling debates has been like sitting in a steam room at the Y with a bunch of guys that went to Wurstfest last night.

The Facts About Spending Cuts, the Debt, and the GDP

Separating economic myths from economic truths

Veronique de Rugy | July 29, 2011

An excerpt from the article:

Raising the debt limit might put off a downgrade disaster in August, but that still isn’t enough—as Standard & Poor’s recent warning made clear. Perhaps the most important shot not heard around the world was S&P’s other admonition: Namely, that the U.S. bond rating will be downgraded in three months, if not sooner, unless we do something about government spending. Beyond raising the debt limit, S&P laid out clear criteria for avoiding a downgrade: 1) reduce the debt by about $4 trillion; 2) agree to a credible plan within three months; and 3) guarantee that this newfound fiscal discipline will actually stick.

Is Global Warming the Next Big Thing or an Existential Threat to Civilization?

edited 7/27/2011


We will eventually know the answer

Eventually the argument about Anthropogenic Global Warming will be settled and become common knowledge.  It will not, however, be settled soon, or by those frustrated scientists demanding that the conversation cease.  It will be settled when scientists on all sides of the argument arrive at the same conclusion from different research and directions of inquiry.  At that point it will all seem to have been obvious.

Scientific results that are replicable, reputable, transparent, open to challenge, empirically defended, characteristics lacking in the current argument, will pile up in the corner of the eventual winning viewpoint.

The Real Difference between Democrats and Republicans

A friend posted this joke on his Facebook page.  I routinely fact check jokes because if one is accustomed to using relaxed (sub-par) intellectual standards it will be particularly apparent in a joke where they expect no critical reading of the facts.

In this case I read the joke carefully to gain the full benefit of the humor (which I enjoyed) and to glean the information contained therein.   I check the facts, and if required by the facts, rewrite the joke to reflect the facts discovered.  In this case the facts represented in the joke are wrong, and indicate another conclusion than that represented by the punch line, so I rewrote the joke to reflect the actual facts.

What follows is both the original joke and the rewrite.

 The most important fact was that at least the woman knew she was lost.

Even the Fed thinks Keynes is Dead: White House holding Seance!

The Federal Debt: Too Little Revenue or Too Much Spending

by Daniel L. Thornton and Kevin L. Kliesen

in Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011-07-07 2011, No. 20

“The rise in the national debt... is entirely a consequence of the federal government’s increase of expenditures without an offsetting increase in revenues. “

Read the whole article: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/article/8856 

IMMIGRATION WITHOUT LEGISLATION: President Obama Won't Try to Get Immigration through Congress; Decides to Do It Anyway; ICE Union Votes No Confidence; Memo Undermines Enforcement of Existing Laws

Remember what President Obama told Sarah Brady about gun control:

“President Obama is expanding gun control “under the radar,” he reportedly promised Sarah Brady. “I just want you to know we are working on it,” Brady recalled the President saying. “We have to go through a few processes, but under the radar.” (via FrontPage.com; “Gun Control by Stealth,” Tait Trussel)

Lawmaking by the Executive through department policy and regulation, seems to be going on with the immigration issue as well as with Second Amendment rights.

Imagine the pre-memo discussion in the White House between the President and the ICE Director, John Morton:

O: John, I have an elegant solution for immigration but I really don't want to let Congress touch it.

JM: I understand Sir. If you send it to the Hill those rubes will just screw it up by legislating whatever the hell they want to. We'll have to do deals about all kinds of crazy, unnecessary stuff, like fences and border control. I know you just don't want to deal with it.

O: That's right John. They want to run things but they aren't President. I am.

Is America the Jewish "Promised Land".. Really?

An interesting article on the Jewish immigration to America and its place in Jewish history.

From the article:

"One Jew – Haym Solomon – quickly recognized the opportunities that the liberal values of the American Revolutionaries might afford future Jews. Solomon put his money where his thoughts were and gave $20,000 to George Washington’s army, making him the largest financier of the American Revolution."

Read the whole thing:    USA: The Jewish Promised Land?

The Federal Government Decides to Stack the Deck Against Fracking

National Review includes Kathryn Hartnett White's excellent article about hydraulic fracturing "Fracas About Fracking" . 

A particular quote to remember while reading Ms. White's article is this one from the President's speech in October to Latino voters (via Allahpundit and The Weekly Standard):

"In a radio interview that aired on Univision on Monday, Mr. Obama sought to assure Hispanics that he would push an immigration overhaul after the midterm elections, despite fierce Republican opposition.

“If Latinos sit out the election instead of saying, ‘We’re gonna punish our enemies and we’re gonna reward our friends who stand with us on issues that are important to us"

 The administration appears to be following up on its stated aim to punish its enemies as the EPA attacks hydraulic fracking and sets up an "endangered" lizard to halt drilling in Texas.  What will these efforts damage.  

Government Gone Wild in the Antelope Valley

We don't need no stinkin' private property.  The bureaucrats in California graciously validate my point in the previous post "Six Billion (data) Points of Light".

L.A. County's Private Property War - Page 1 - News - Los Angeles - LA Weekly www.laweekly.com

Six Billion Points of Light

I have been in an ongoing conversation (online) about Global Warming with a friend who has impeccable scientific credentials. He is entirely convinced that CO2 levels are rising. I tend to defer to him regarding the science. He is honest, successful and I have known him most of my life. We agree that facts are facts.  We also agree that:

"No one knows exactly how the climate will change as heat accumulates, or the ocean's food chain evolves as it gets hotter and more acidic." 

Me:   Exactly my point. In geologic time CO2 levels have been much higher in previous epochs. I think it damages science, polity and the ability of humans to dispassionately respond to or examine current conditions when the profiteers demagogue science to enhance their own position, financial or otherwise. Additionally, to claim, as some have said: "We know what needs to be done" in a field that is notoriously inexact (climate) is simply false.

Friend: So, I think we agree on the basics. Although, I'm perhaps more skeptical about how well prepared we are to operate in previous epochs.

Which profiteers do you think demagogue science?

How much more climate science exactness do you want before we assign a price to an assessed risk? Not picking winners. Just letting the free market do its thing.

Previous Epochs:

With regard to previous epochs we know this: We are here (humans) alive and well, the most successful predators in the kingdom, having successfully enslaved all other animals, vegetables, minerals and plants to our (perceived) benefit. We do not operate in previous epochs, we are the result of previous epochs. The debate tends to be about what is to humanity's present and future benefit.

Which Profiteers?.. All of them:

Voltaire & Hayek: Humans are predators who will always work to their own advantage. Humans wish to accumulate power, advantage, wealth, dominance, sex and other worldly goods and services (see Maslow). Humans will always default to the pursuit of their own perceived advantage. The Crisis (any one will do) is always presented as: “We have a “good idea”, give us the power, we know the way, we are the truth and the light, we will fix the problem for you, it may be a little uncomfortable for awhile but trust us.” This inevitably results in the “Dictatorship of the Proletariat,” the revolutionary committees, the Gulag, the Nazi Death Camps, the Death Committees, Purging the Kulaks, exterminating the Jews, killing the apostate Shia, killing the infidel Christians and so on throughout history.

David Carr: Crackhead NYT Columnist

If you missed the Breitbart video of David Carr referring to the "low sloping foreheads" on those who live in the mid-country of the US.  Here is a link.

NY Times Columnist: Kansas, Missouri ‘Middle Places’ Land of ‘Low Sloping Foreheads’ www.breitbart.tv ‎"If it's Kansas, Missouri, no big deal. You know, that's the dance of the low-sloping foreheads. The middle places, right? ...Did I just say that aloud?" - David Carr, NY Times
Ann Althouse has a post on David Carr's years as a crackhead before he was a NYT columnist.  Be sure to read the comments.  David Carr-Crackhead

Some Agreement from the WSJ

The Wall Street Journal Weighs In
The Facts About Fracking

In the Barnett Shale, Technology and Innovation answer Peak Oil Pessimism

A friend queried me about the current discussion that implies that shale gas might not be all it is cracked up to be.  The question is really about “Decline Curves” in gas production and the future of shale gas economics and hence, production.

Here is a link to Arthur Berman's 2009 article, “Lessons from the Barnett Shale imply caution in other shale plays” advising caution in believing the decline curves propounded by investment advisors.    http://www.worldoil.com/August-2009-Whats-new-in-exploration.html

Skepticism is always good practice when dealing with someone who makes money from obtaining yours, so I have no problem with the advice. Investment advisors are salesmen and they will always exaggerate, consciously or unconsciously. It is human nature, one tends to see rosier futures when the future includes themselves. 

PEAK OIL AND GREEN ALTERNATIVES

Peak Oil has been around a long time and has been consistently in error for a number of reasons, some known and some unknown.

First the unknown: Peak Oil assumes a biogenic origin of hydrocarbons. Here is a link that questions that assumption:

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/319/5863/604.figures-only 

and another link to a more accessible article on the subject:

http://www.nature.com/news/2008/080131/full/news.2008.542.html .

The Russians embraced Thomas Gold's theory of abiotic origins of oil early on and began drilling very deep oil wells greatly increasing reserves and production. It seems possible that there is more than one way that Nature produces hydrocarbons and we are mistaken to look for a single answer.

Data Source: EIA - US Energy Information Administration

Peak Oil, also assumes a zero sum game in terms of known reserves and values reserves based on current production methods. As a result, not so long ago, the Peak Oil theory failed to assign value to shale oils known to reside in formations like the Barnett Shale, the Eagle Ford and Marcellus shales . The application of directional drilling combined with hydraulic fracking promises to reduce domestic imports by a third within 5-10 years with production in these very formations, considered worthless just a few years ago.

Riddle me this: A Global Warming Question

The much discussed hockey stick graph is a graphic depiction of one thousand years of weather data, only a small part of which data is actually observed data. The quality and adjustment of this data has been much debated. 

CONDITIONS: If the Earth is approximately 4.5 billion years old as determined from the oldest minerals so far discovered, and; the earliest life forms, “protists” a complex single cell with nucleus, appeared approximately 1.8 billion years ago, and; we assume that life forms require “Climate” in its broadest definition to exist, and; we establish the average data measurement period as one year of average high/low temperatures, and; we elect to use the total life of the existence of “Climate” as the overall population of data points, and; we have gathered a sample of 1000 years of "Climate" data:

Q1. Is 1000 years a valid sample size to produce a statistically valid prediction of future “Climate”? (1000 years yields a sample of only 5.56E-07 with a multitude of variables, many unknowable from geological records, most of which are inferred rather than observed.)

Q2. Since Chaos Theory posits sensitive dependence on initial conditions in order to accurately forecast future events, what initial conditions as of 1.8 Bn years ago were used in the climate change forecasting models and to what extent can these models cleanly replicate known historical climate records or even general climate conditions during a geological period between -1.8Bn years and -1000 years.  For instance, the Pleistocene Epoch?

Q3. If you start a climate sample at year 1000 and do a linear regression trend line, the first 1.79999 billion years necessary to determine the actual trajectory of the linear regression is missing.  Therefore, of what value is a climate graph depicting the 1000 years between 1000 A.D. and 2000 A.D. in predicting large scale effects of temperature changes on the planet?

It is therefore evident that the trend line from the 1000 year sample would in fact tell us very little about future “Climate”.  In fact, the absence of "initial conditions" and trend lines for the preceding 1.79999 Bn years would skew the scale of change relative to the elapsed time.

In short, predictions of the consequences of Global Warming from any cause, as reflected in the “Hockey Stick Graph” whether accurate or not, are fatally compromised.

Big Oil does Fracking.. Let's Regulate Fracking!

There is a movement afoot to delegitimize and regulate one of the proven techniques for extraction of natural gas and oil from tight formations. Hydraulic Fracturing is the technique currently attracting attention among the more radical Greens. The environmentalists claim that Fracturing contaminates underground drinking water reservoirs. Current opinion among environmentalists is being driven by a recent Duke University study that concludes that dangerous levels of methane are present in water wells in NE Pennsylvania and adjacent counties in New York as a possible result of hydraulic fracturing.

This article "Shale Fracturing - Water,Nitroglycerin or a Nuclear Bomb" by Gene Powell, Publisher of the Powell Shale Digest, describes various attempts throughout the history of the oil industry to improve flow rates in tight strata by fracturing the producing rock formation. The methods varied from the mundane to the extreme and the clear winner was the most mundane, hydraulic fracturing using sand and water.

MY TAKE ON HYDRAULIC FRACKING

I am not aware of credible evidence of pollution of groundwater by hydraulic fracking in South Texas. The images I see of people lighting the methane flowing with water from the faucet, while amusing, are not a new phenomenon. In fact it was these sorts of observations, surface oil seeps and methane in water wells that were early forms of oil exploration in many parts of the country.

I remember stories of this sort from my childhood when I would listen to my father, grandfather and uncles discuss their work in the oil fields. In fact, Upton Sinclair's 1927 novel Oil! includes a scene in which it is oil seeps that tip off the oil baron about the presence of a reservoir under land where he is hunting with his son in Chapter 4.

Oil and gas producing formations being explored in Texas today normally lie several thousand feet below water bearing formations. These formations were not producible until the advent of fracking. The reasons these formations were not producible were largely because they were deep (8k to 15k feet), "tight" non-porous formations through which fluids could not migrate and which would self seal if an attempt was made to extract gas or oil. This lack of porosity and inability for fluids to migrate within the formations (for example the Eagle Ford in South Texas) caused these formations to be excluded and considered enconomically non-productive. That is, until the maturation of hydraulic fracturing to artificially create flow channels between the rock and a drilled channel. Adventurous companies recently tested the new methods in previously excluded formations such as the Bakken and Eagle Ford shale formations and created a new domestic oil boom in various deep shale formations across the country.

Advice Goddess recognizes dhimmihood when she sees it...

The excision of maleness continues unabated.  Upon viewing this I just couldn't get over the thought that if you simply substitute Islam for Woman it would be a near perfect expression of dhimmitude.

Advice Goddess

Culture, Education, Unions, Islamism, Darwin and Marx and.. I'll have fries with that

THE ROLE OF EDUCATORS

A question has been nagging me for clarification.  The traditional role of the educator is to impart basic academic knowledge and cultural norms.  This implies two definitions the first is a definition of “basic academic knowledge”. The second, “cultural norms” is more difficult to define and varies from constituency to constituency across the United States. There are, however, in a capitalistic society, a certain small subset of cultural norms that are embedded in capitalism.

Read more after the jump:

Tapeworm Tales

When the riots in Greece were ongoing I noticed the events bore an eery similarity to an old joke told by med students about how to remove a tapeworm.

Tapeworms are notoriously hard to get rid of.  The method recommended in the joke is;  Step 1: Anally insert a banana in the patient's rectum daily at exactly the same time each day for 7 days;  Step 2:  On the 8th day the doctor arms himself with a hammer and pliers, positions the patient for insertion and closely observes the patient;  Step 3:  After a moderate delay, the tapeworm, conditioned to receiving its banana precisely on time each day, becomes angry and aggressive and exposes its head and shoulders outside the rectal opening and loudly demands "where the hell is my banana?" at which point the doctor is able to grab it with the pliers and beat it to death with the hammer.

Obviously, the tapeworm, if given the opportunity to escape, or if mollified by additional feeding, will be doubly hard to catch and kill if this first opportunity is botched.  Therefore, it is important to seize the opportunity the first time.

Greece is being bailed out by the EU.  Oops.

Lets make sure we kill the tapeworm in Wisconsin.

And it didn't break.

Just set it back up, screw in another light bulb, put the shade back on and its good as new.

Care or Cost? Is the problem Health Care or Health Insurance?

A recent NewYorker article reviewed health care in an article entitled "The Cost Conundrum". The linked www.thehealthcareblog.com analyzed this article and came up with a different take on the data after correcting for demographic and baseline health differences.

In essence the NewYorker article is a classic, although plausible, hit job on the "rich" doctors which draws the conclusion that it is a corrupt medical establishment, determined to exploit the system, that has driven up the costs. The medical establishment has done this by investing in surgical centers, lithotriptors, CT scanners and other medical facilities and equipment. They then greedily refer and prescribe the services of these facilities to their unwitting patients. Subsequently they are paid by medicare or Blue Cross or another insurer and thus leverage the system to their own selfish advantage.

Whenever I find a group vilified for an epidemic problem I am curious about the research, the political leanings and personal background of the author and the logic of the conclusion.. in approximately that order. My background is in history and I have noticed that one's personal history has a habit of forming the axiomatic basis for reasoning.
Read more after the jump:

Victor Davis Hanson and the reality of human nature

Victor Davis Hanson has a writing style that is spare and manages to communicate his complex observations in prose so simple that it sometimes disquises the profound nature of his observations. His recent article "The Reckoning" fits this profile. In "The Reckoning" he details the many ways in which the Obama approach, much hailed by left leaning, politically idealistic sycophants, will inevitably lead to confrontation.

The absolute fact of human nature is that man dominates the world as its most successful predator. It is also a well documented fact that if one shows weakness to a predator the predator sees a future meal not an equal in the food chain. The true genius of American politics is that the constitution is designed to rein in the predators and make them subservient to the People. Seldom has an ego arrived in the Presidency that so challenged this system.

The Obama Way may well be the final step toward some catastrophic confrontation with Islam, Russia, Iran, Iran/Venezuela/Cuba/Al Qaeda/MS13 or some variation as yet unimagined. It is a simple fact that the world is dominated by predators who have succeeded and gained dominance in their local and regional environment. Outside of the US and Western Europe, where the predators have been relatively confined to the business and legal worlds and the military protection of civilian populations by societies that grew out of the classical tradition that is often the subject of Mr. Hanson's publishing efforts, the world is a much more Darwinian and violent place. Perhaps the safest place in human history to grow up, live and prosper has been the world of post WWII North America. Perhaps the least safe and most brutal locales have been the Middle East, China and the former Soviet Union. The predators who are dominant in these locales have different responses than those who went to elite universities in the post war US. There have been no restraints on them. They have triumphed through brutality and fear and violence. They have won elections through intimidation and manipulation.

Mr. Hanson illustrates Barack Obama's lack of preparation and experience through his tale of his own youthful experience with his neighbor and the conflict caused by his idealism and resolved by force which induced respect. It is doubtful that Mr. Obama knows this lesson yet. Putin, Castro, Chavez, Bin Laden and a host of others will no doubt instruct him.

The Great Trans-Flyover

The Great Trans-Flyover is that land contained by and generally ignored by the coastal elites of the United States. Bordered on the north by Canada and on the south by Mexico the Great Trans-Flyover includes those lands of the continental interior most recently tamed and made states.

The Transflyover includes the Old South (now renewed), the Louisiana Purchase, the Republic of Texas, the Comancheria, the Llano Estacado, the Great Plains, the Rocky Mountains, the Black Hills and the desert lands of the Gadsden Purchase and the mountain states. The great river valleys of the Tennessee, Ohio, Missouri, Platte and Missippi, Arkansas, White, Red and Colorado rivers provide habitat to the farmlands, agriculture and husbandry that is the richest such resource on the planet.

What the people of these lands share in the present day, other than the intellectual disdain of the denizens of the two coasts, whose few elite were made rich plundering the interior in the 19th century, is the fresh memory of their pioneer history.

It is these roots, these cultural memories that define the distinction between the present day Left with its continual denigration of the value of being an American and those of us who have small businesses, farms and families in the Great Trans-flyover. 

We in the Great Transflyover wake each morning to thank God that we are here in the United States of America where we have freedom. Freedom to succeed, to fail but most of all, freedom without fetters.  This is not necessarily freedom without hardship but it truly is freedom as no man (or woman) has known in any country in the world at any time in the past history of man.